AGP Executive Report

Dangote Refinery IPO: Nigeria’s SEC has cleared Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s $1.6bn IPO, with plans to offer 4.1bn shares at ₦525 each, valuing the refinery around $47bn—another big consumer-energy finance milestone for Africa. Consumer Protection: Nigeria’s NANS and IPCRC are sounding alarms over fake drugs, adulterated food and harmful consumables, urging stronger NAFDAC enforcement as counterfeit toothpaste, palm oil and medicines keep surfacing. Telecom Pricing Pressure: South Africa’s Icasa is set to investigate OTT pricing (Netflix, WhatsApp) and broader telecom costs, targeting high data/voice/broadband prices. Electricity for Households & SMEs: Kenya Power will invest Sh765m in new Coast substations in Kilifi and Kwale to ease rising demand and improve reliability for growing business hubs. Regulation & Retail Access: Kenya warns visa-free entry doesn’t allow foreigners to work or run businesses; it comes ahead of a Sept 7 crackdown on small-scale foreign retail hawking. Digital Infrastructure: Digital Realty opens Nairobi Two (6.4MW) to expand East Africa’s data centre capacity and interconnection. Energy Prices Watch: Nigeria’s cooking gas prices are reported to have fallen up to 40% since June as supply improves.

Pharma Localisation: Nigeria’s NAFDAC says its “5+5” policy and Ceiling List are shifting the market toward local drug production, with manufacturers rising from 174 to 190 and imports improving from 70:30 (2019) to 50:50 (2025), while contract manufacturing grows to 87 firms by 2026. Fuel Price Volatility: Nigeria’s NMDPRA links petrol price swings to crude sourcing, single-source domestic refining, logistics and transport costs, plus lags between crude procurement, refinery arrival and inland distribution. Regulator vs Ride-Hailing: Nigeria’s FCCPC has started probing Uber’s exit, focusing on unfulfilled customer services after Uber wound down operations in Nigeria and Uganda effective September 2. Cost of Living Politics: Atiku attacks Tinubu’s fuel subsidy removal and argues targeted support for domestic refining is needed to ease fuel, food and transport costs. Petrol Pricing Promises: SDP’s Adebayo vows to cap petrol, cooking gas and Jet A1 at N200 within 12 months, via refinery revival and a return to an original subsidy-style regime. Food Safety Push: Lagos’ consumer protection agency urges participation in the Sept 8 Lagos State Food Safety Conference, aiming for safer food practices across industry and regulators. Environmental Health Warning: Niger Delta activist Nnimmo Bassey warns after reported Okrika deaths from toxic fumes linked to illegal pipeline siphoning. Agriculture Watch: South Africa’s grain planting season is set to start amid good soil moisture, but the 2026-27 outlook may get tougher as El Niño risks intensify later in the season. Electric Mobility Trend: Rising fuel prices are helping drive an electric motorcycle boom in parts of Africa and Asia, as charging can be cheaper than refuelling. Oil Market Update: OPEC+ kept October output steady for key producers as Nigeria seeks higher crude production and stronger revenues. Uber’s Next Move: Uber is also tied to a Delivery Hero/Glovo deal, signaling a shift from ride-hailing to delivery in parts of Africa. Dangote Refinery IPO: Nigeria’s SEC approved Dangote refinery’s IPO, positioning it as Africa’s biggest share sale and a major test of investor appetite.

Retail & Consumer Safety: Kenya’s Pharmacy and Poisons Board (PPB) is pushing for stronger quality assurance, safety monitoring and research for traditional medicines, stressing accurate dosing, standardised production and clear labelling. Food Safety: Nigeria’s ex-VP Yemi Osinbajo warns consumers about fruits and vegetables potentially ripened or preserved with harmful chemicals, urging tighter scrutiny across the supply chain. Climate Finance Gap: A new analysis says Africa gets only about 23% of needed climate finance and pays too much, with adaptation and mitigation funding still far below planned levels. Energy Costs & Reliability: Kenya reduced costly thermal power use by leaning more on imports to help curb electricity price pressure, while South Africa’s Eskom recovery story is tempered by ongoing grid ownership reform concerns. Trade & Export Opportunity: Nigeria secured a two-year AGOA extension, giving exporters another push to shift from raw goods to value-added products for the US market. Mobility & Payments Shock: Uber’s 12-year Nigeria exit is reigniting debate on platform dependence and livelihoods, as local ride-hailing and fintech rivals position to fill the gap. Markets & Prices: South Africa’s fresh produce shows onions up and potatoes easing, while Lesotho/Botswana price comparisons highlight how far grocery budgets stretch across borders. Governance & Informal Trade: Kenya’s Refigah urges President Ruto to avoid blanket bans on foreign hawkers, calling instead for an identification and taxation framework.

Uber Exit Fallout: Uber has shut down ride-hailing operations in Nigeria and Uganda, effective Sept 2, leaving cars off the apps and adding pressure on local drivers and competing platforms like inDrive and Bolt. Policy Pushback: Nigeria’s FAAN says it had no role in Uber’s exit, arguing airport e-hailing restrictions were about passenger safety and accountability. Fuel Price Politics: Oyo State Gov Seyi Makinde says Nigeria’s petrol pricing must be overhauled because border failures and smuggling losses are being pushed onto consumers; meanwhile an opposition candidate calls the Tinubu fuel policy “insanity.” Capital Markets: Nigeria’s SEC approved Dangote Refinery’s IPO, kicking off Africa’s biggest share sale with a potential $1.63bn raise. Consumer Impact: Beans prices in Lagos have jumped sharply, forcing households to cut purchases and switch meals. Trade & Standards: Nigeria’s NEPC trained 70 small-holder farmers in Adamawa on safe pesticide use to reduce export rejections over residues. Regional Integration: Nigeria launched ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme sensitisation in Bauchi to help businesses export across West Africa. Food & Agriculture Growth: Tanzania’s honey output rose from 350 to 500 tonnes after TADB support, with a push toward 1,500 tonnes. Retail Competition (SA): South Africans are debating Woolworths’ premium pricing after internal food inflation was reported higher than Checkers. Travel & Tourism: EgyptAir launched direct flights from Cairo to Zanzibar, boosting East Africa connectivity.

Fuel & Cost Pressure: South Africa’s Debt Rescue says the latest petrol and diesel hikes are pushing households and small businesses deeper into debt, warning of more job losses as transport costs feed into food and essentials. Premium Spirits Retail: CVH Spirits is expanding in South Africa by appointing Truman & Orange as exclusive distributor, betting on single malt and higher-end expressions. Health Regulation Crackdown (Niger): Niger’s agency sealed 12 unregistered Islamic medicine stores and a clinic in Minna and Katcha for regulatory breaches, urging practitioners to register. Trade Relief for Exporters (AGOA): Trump signed an AGOA extension through December 2028, giving Kenya and other eligible exporters continued duty-free access to the US market. FX Watch (Nigeria): The naira gained against the dollar even as official FX turnover fell sharply, closing at about N1,322.50/$. Health Manufacturing Push (Tanzania): Tanzania is courting major US investors to build pharma, diagnostics and medical device manufacturing, offering incentives and clearer pathways. Big Capital Markets Moment (Nigeria): Nigeria’s SEC approved Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO, potentially raising about $1.6bn, with a valuation target near $47bn. Ride-hailing Shake-up (Nigeria): Uber shut down in Nigeria after 12 years, citing tough economics; the exit also happened in Uganda. Petrol Pricing Debate (Nigeria): Seyi Makinde argues Nigerians shouldn’t pay more due to border failures, calling for a fairer, transparent pricing framework. Oil Theft Tragedy (Nigeria): At least 37 died in Rivers State after inhaling toxic fumes during an alleged oil theft attempt. Industrialisation & Investment (Kenya): Kenya seeks Chinese manufacturing investment as it pushes Vision 2060, while Tata Chemicals faces a “pack and go” order over local processing claims. Consumer Safety (South Africa): Counterfeit toys are surging in South Africa, with industry estimating fake/noncompliant products at about a quarter of market sales. Digital Services (Nigeria): Glo Café 3.0 rolls out as a more customer-friendly self-service app for airtime, data, bills and payments. Capital & Culture (Nigeria): Nigeria’s Afrocentric Cultural Expo 2026 is unveiled, projecting over N125m in direct local economic injection.

Dangote Refinery IPO Push: Nigeria’s SEC has cleared Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO, with 4.1bn shares at ₦525 each (up to about $1.6bn) and an expected listing date of Sept 14—aimed at scaling capacity and boosting local fuel supply. Fuel Subsidy & Pricing Politics: Nigeria’s fuel subsidy debate heats up as Seyi Makinde argues Nigerians shouldn’t pay more due to border failures and calls for a fair, transparent pricing framework; Sowore also insists he opposed subsidy removal since 2019 while warning current wages and living costs don’t add up. Power Tariff Pressure: Consumers react to plans to scrap Nigeria’s Band A electricity tariff and restore full subsidy, while South Africa’s Nersa opens public input on Eskom’s 2027/28 tariff structure (8.83% average increase). Consumer Health & Food Security: Stakeholders urge rice fortification to tackle hidden hunger in Nigeria. Safety Shock in Oil Theft: At least 37 die after toxic fumes during alleged petrol theft in Rivers State, highlighting risks around pipeline siphoning. Digital Consumer Services: Ethiopia’s ESL launches a digital customer self-service platform for port and cargo operations, and Morocco’s call-centre sector braces after France’s telemarketing ban. Retail & Payments: South Africa’s DStv adds bill-splitting via the MyDStv app, while Nigeria’s fintech FairMoney tops 30m registered users.

Electric Mobility Push (South Africa): The Festival of Motoring in Midrand showcased 19 battery-electric models from 12 brands, signalling rising local appetite for EVs. Ride-hailing Shock (Nigeria): Uber’s exit after 12 years is being framed as a wider business climate warning, with drivers and passengers bracing for disruption while rivals like inDrive position to absorb demand. Fintech Rumour Control (Nigeria): OPay says it is fully operational and taking legal action over viral shutdown claims, with the Central Bank of Nigeria calling the reports fake. Fuel & Power Pressure (Nigeria/South Africa): Nigeria’s energy investment outlook improved after joining the IEA, but consumers face ongoing fuel-cost stress; in South Africa, NERSA is consulting on an 8.8% Eskom tariff increase from 1 April 2027. Consumer & Trade Moves (Africa): DHL and Absa expand the GoTrade programme to help SMEs cross borders, with Mozambique and Tanzania next. Food & Health Watch: Kenya’s milk shortage is hitting chai demand, while research flags heavy pesticide poisoning risks across East Africa and beyond. Mining & Value Addition (Tanzania/Kenya): Tanzania backs heavy mineral sands processing for export value, while Kenya orders Tata Chemicals to “pack and go” over limited local processing.

South Africa Education Probe Cleared: Lighthouse Publishers was cleared of fraud and irregularities over the Foundation Phase textbook catalogue after an independent DBE-commissioned investigation, easing pressure on the controversial publishing firm. Kenya Milk Shortage: Drought-linked dry and cold weather cut formal milk deliveries to processors (84.4m litres in June to 81.3m in July), leaving some supermarkets with low stocks and rationing, with hopes pinned on October rains. Kenya Hawkers Crackdown: President Ruto ordered a crackdown from Sept 7 on foreign nationals running small shops and hawking, aiming to protect opportunities for Kenyan MSMEs. Nigeria Fuel Tragedy: In Rivers’ Okrika, 43 people died after inhaling toxic fumes during illegal fuel siphoning at Okari Jetty, with investigations ongoing. Nigeria Power Debt Push: The House Committee on Power urged indebted DisCos to clear outstanding market obligations, warning liquidity is key to keeping the power market stable. Nigeria LPG Relief Signal: Nigeria’s LPG supply hit a record 5,332 tonnes/day in July, though retail prices remain volatile. Fintech Rumour Control: OPay denied viral claims it will shut down in Nigeria, saying services are fully operational. Nigeria-Electricity Credit: Ikeja Electric launched “Energy Advance,” letting eligible customers borrow electricity units up to ₦20,000 on credit. Trade & Investment: Uganda and Nigeria are set to finalise deals targeting export of 2,000 Ankole cows; Kenya also plans deeper industrial upgrades with China to boost value-added manufacturing and jobs.

Uber exit reshapes ride-hailing: Uber has shut down operations in Nigeria effective 2 Sept 2026, citing a business review; its help centre stays open until 23 Sept as competition shifts to Bolt, inDrive and local rivals. Fintech trust under pressure: OPay says it has taken legal action over a viral shutdown rumour, involving DSS and police, and insists it remains fully operational. Forex rules tighten: Nigeria’s SEC proposes new licensing and capital thresholds for online forex and CFDs, including up to N5bn minimum capital and local ownership requirements. Consumer affordability hit: An Ipsos study says nearly 1 in 7 South Africans missed work or studies due to unaffordable transport as fuel costs rise. Telecoms and payments momentum: MTN leads Nigeria’s fibre broadband with 55.2% of FTTX subs, while MTN MoMo reports 70.8m monthly active users and 2.3m daily merchants. Vehicle safety recalls: South Africa’s NCC has been notified of recalls for thousands of Mercedes-Benz and Fuso trucks over axle bearing bracket and fuel-pipe cracking risks. Food systems under El Niño: Coverage highlights drought-resistant crop adoption challenges as El Niño strengthens, raising the stakes for distribution and counterfeit controls. Trade and retail: Kenya launches an e-commerce alliance push for VAT and Significant Economic Presence Tax compliance, while South Africa’s DStv is set for major package changes under Canal+. EVs in the spotlight: South Africa welcomes the new BMW iX3 with up to 805km range, and Nio’s Firefly EV is set for local launch soon.

Healthcare Reform: Kenya sets a 2028 goal to integrate evidence-based traditional medicine into mainstream care, with one national system and new standards for practitioners and products. Aviation & Consumer Impact: Kenya Airways says a three-day aviation disruption cost it over Sh900m in lost revenue and extra customer-related costs, even as normal operations return. Household Costs: Kenyan shoppers report shortages and higher prices for basic foods like milk, vegetables, meat and eggs, with some retailers limiting milk purchases. Insurance Uptick: Kenya’s insurance premiums hit Sh466.6bn in 2025, with penetration rising to 2.63% of GDP as demand grows for household and business protection. Ride-hailing Shake-up: Uber exits Nigeria after 12 years and also shuts down in Uganda, leaving users to scramble for alternatives as competition intensifies. Trade & Food: Egypt’s Egyptian Swiss Group prepares to export pasta and flour to China after completing registrations. Oil Milestone: Uganda names its crude blend “Pearl Sweet” ahead of commercial production, stressing revenues should fund long-term national assets. Digital & Infrastructure: Lagos pushes power and fibre upgrades to support “sovereign AI” and innovation investment. Consumer Safety: Nigeria-focused guides highlight how to choose the right indoor insect spray and mosquito protection during the rainy season. Local Content Push: Kenya orders foreign hawkers and small retailers to close from Sept 7, backed by a Local Content Bill.

FX & Reserves: Nigeria’s naira strengthened to about ₦1,329 per $1 as dollar weakness and higher external reserves boosted liquidity. Trade Snapshot: Ghana’s Q1 2026 external trade hit GH¢174.6bn, with exports at GH¢110.3bn and a nominal surplus of GH¢46.1bn, though real terms were weaker. Retail & Consumer Costs: South Africa’s pharmacies show mixed pricing—Dis-Chem came out cheaper on OTC items in a Clicks vs Dis-Chem comparison—while petrol in Nigeria faces another potential jump as depot rates rose to around N1,290/litre. Payments & Banking Reliability: UBA apologised after mobile app disruptions blocked some customers; FCMB was recognised for digital trust and governance. Digital Infrastructure: WIOCC secured $300m to expand Africa’s open-access fibre and data-centre buildout. Energy Policy: Ghana extended a diesel subsidy cut (GH¢2/litre) for the September window; Nigeria’s NNPC remitted N7.9tn to the Federation Account in seven months. Food & Health: Lagos sachet alcohol sellers protested NAFDAC crackdowns; Nigeria urged stronger research and regulation for traditional medicine. Automotive Safety: Ford recalled 2,275 Ranger Double Cab bakkies in South Africa over airbag deployment risk. Africa Business: Shoprite’s planned buyout of Vida e Caffè could reshape coffee retail pricing and availability.

Agribusiness Diplomacy: Venezuela’s delegation wrapped up participation at Congo’s 2nd Great Agricultural Fair, trading ideas with Congo’s agriculture ministry and spotlighting coffee and cacao as cooperation-ready exports. Trade Remedies: Ferroglobe says the European Commission has opened an interim review of antidumping duties on Chinese silicon metal imports, a move that could reshape pricing for a key industrial input. Shipping & Retail Supply: OOCL launched Asia–East Africa Service 8 (EAX8), linking India’s Nhava Sheva/Mundra with Mombasa and Dar es Salaam from late September. Made-in-Africa Consumer Push: Ghana’s “This Is Ghana” exhibition drew 200+ local businesses across food, fashion, beauty and manufacturing, urging firms to scale via AfCFTA. Energy & Consumer Costs: Nigeria’s electricity subsidy bill hit N1.928tn in 2025 as tariffs stayed frozen below cost-reflective rates, while Eskom flagged surplus power and is hunting new demand, including data centres. Digital & Everyday Services: Starlink’s fibre push is accelerating Zimbabwe’s broadband via rapidly rising VSAT subscriptions, and Kenya’s home water purification market is growing as shortages drive demand for safer drinking water. Food & Health: DR Congo’s Ebola caseload topped 6,000 with deaths at 2,911, as access and insecurity complicate response. Consumer Finance & Policy: Nigeria’s fuel pricing debate intensified after calls to cap or liberalise prices, with stakeholders warning price controls could worsen supply and investment.

Business Continuity: QNB Group renewed its ISO 22301 certification, reinforcing plans to keep critical banking services running during disruptions. Agri-Finance Gap: Youth agroecology leaders in Uganda say limited access to finance is blocking young entrepreneurs from scaling sustainable farming. Energy Affordability: Nigeria’s electricity tariff subsidy obligation hit ₦1.93tn in 2025 as regulators froze end-user tariffs, widening the cost gap. Fuel & Refining Court Move: A Lagos court restrained NMDPRA from shutting down or interfering with Dangote Refinery operations after a directive to suspend loading/truck-out. Digital Commerce Shock: Meta will charge Nigerian businesses N14 per WhatsApp customer-service message from Oct 1, while regular users won’t pay. Retail & Consumer Markets: Shoprite reported profit growth and dividend increase, while expanding via the Vida e Caffè coffee-shop acquisition. Tanzania Seeds Push: Tanzania hit record domestic seed production, reducing reliance on imports and supporting sustainable agriculture growth. Aviation Disruption: Kenya Airways offered free rebooking for passengers affected by an air traffic control strike. Packaging & FMCG Design: Gca Design Studio won Gold at the A’ Design Awards for a “Perfectly Imperfect” sauce bottle concept.

Petrol Price Shock (Nigeria): Dangote refinery’s latest gantry price increases are pushing Premium Motor Spirit to as high as N1,350/litre in parts of Abuja, Enugu and elsewhere, reigniting fears of higher transport and food costs. Fuel Supply & Regulation (Nigeria): A Lagos court has restrained NMDPRA from interfering with Dangote Refinery’s loading and truck-out operations, while Dangote is also considering restricting PMS sales to marketers still importing fuel. Inflation Pressure (Kenya): Kenya’s consumer prices rose to 6.6% in August, driven mainly by food (up 9%) and transport (up 15.7%), squeezing household budgets. Aviation Disruption (Kenya): A Kenya Aviation Workers Union strike left passengers stranded and flights delayed/cancelled at JKIA and other airports. Consumer Protection (Kenya): Stanbic Bank Kenya was ordered to refund Sh511,000 after court findings that weak digital onboarding controls enabled account fraud. Agrifood & Gender (Nigeria): UN says women drive about 70% of Nigeria’s food crop production, but face limits in land, finance, tech and markets—calling for targeted investment. Anti-Corruption (Nigeria): EFCC says it recovered over ₦1.23tn and secured 10,872 convictions in 34 months, with major recoveries in naira and foreign currencies. Trade & Logistics (Nigeria): NPA expects 26 ships at Lagos ports (including aviation fuel and petrol) between Aug 30 and Sept 13. Digital & Cyber (Nigeria): Nigeria’s government at GITEX Nigeria 2026 pushed AI and a national digital cloud push, while Kaspersky warns small businesses are facing the same cyber tactics as larger firms.

Embedded Power in Lagos: Elektron Energy says its 40MW Victoria Island Power project will be completed in Q1 2027, backed by private capital and a generation-plus-distribution model with EKEDP. Cooking Gas Affordability: Nigeria’s LPG price has eased to about N1,250–N1,650/kg, but consumers still complain about costly 5kg and 12.5kg refills; NMDPRA points to supply disruptions and weak local output. Petrol Price Pressure: NNPC raised pump prices in Abuja and Lagos, while Dangote’s gantry price jumps are feeding retail increases, with the refinery defending the hikes on crude timing and logistics. Downstream Refining Worries: CPPE and CPPE-linked commentary warn that rising petrol imports and “indiscriminate” licensing could choke domestic refining investment. Vehicle Safety Recall: South Africa’s NCC recalls 2,275 Ford Ranger Double Cabs over side curtain airbag deployment risk, with free repairs offered. Trade Strategy Debate: Business Leadership South Africa says the SA–Brazil “strategic partnership” looks political, not trade-led, and could worsen SA’s Brazil deficit. Cold-Chain Boost in Kenya: Kenya’s medical research gets a lift as dry-ice access and specialised cold-chain services expand beyond Nairobi. Plastics Policy in Ghana: Ghana’s styrofoam ban starts the first phase of a broader single-use plastics crackdown, with traders shifting to alternatives. Energy Theft Probe (Nigeria): Nigeria targets N120bn annual losses on the Ikorodu–Sagamu industrial corridor after unaccounted power losses hit 100MW. Solar Supply Shift: A report says Africa’s solar additions may hit 17GW in 2026, but most panels are still imported from China, with only a small share made locally.

Dangote Fuel Crackdown: Dangote Refinery says it may restrict PMS sales to major Nigerian marketers that keep importing petrol, alleging some blend substandard imports with Dangote supply, risking quality and brand integrity. Fuel Price Pressure: The refinery’s ex-depot petrol gantry price was raised to ₦1,265/litre, with Abuja pump prices reportedly moving up again after the latest ₦65 increase. Power Sector Capacity: Nigeria’s power experts are urging TCN and DisCos to boost transmission and distribution capacity to match GenCos and stabilise supply after recent transformer upgrades. Cross-Border Finance: A new push is emerging beyond remittances—building financial infrastructure to connect African households and businesses across borders. Cold Chain Voice: GCCA Africa will convene logistics leaders in Johannesburg (2–3 Sept) to strengthen temperature-controlled supply chains and industry advocacy. Plastic & Food Packaging: Ghana’s EPA says the styrofoam ban is the first phase of a broader single-use plastics crackdown. Sugar Tariff Update: South Africa raised its dollar-based reference price for sugar imports to US$785/tonne, but growers warn it may still not stop import displacement. Digital Inclusion: Nigeria’s NCC Hackathon Live Show 2026 crowned SORA with a job-matching platform for persons with disabilities. MoMo Leadership: MoMo PSB appoints Bode Abifarin as CEO from Sept 1, as MTN Nigeria restructures fintech operations. Counterfeit Sugar Probe: Zimbabwe’s anti-corruption investigators arrested a woman over alleged repackaging of sugar with fake Tongaat Hulett labels. Kenya Potato Value-Add: Kenya’s KALRO is promoting potato processing, including potato soap, to cut post-harvest losses and create income.